What’s in the box?
This activity helps illustrate the chances of winning a special item in a loot box by cutting up pieces of paper.
Time:
20-25min
Resources:
3 sheets of A4 paper, scissors for each participant, a container

Method
- Hand out 3 pieces of A4 paper to 3 volunteers, and ask them to cut each of these into 4 equal sized pieces by halving them, then halving again. Place the 12 pieces into a box or container.
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Take one piece and mark it in a certain colour, then place it back in the box. There are now 12 pieces of paper in the container – meaning the chances of pulling the particular piece you drew on would be 1:12 or 8.3%.
These are the same odds as winning an 84+ player from a premium gold pack in FIFA 22, or similar odds to winning a legendary (gold) item in Overwatch (1:13.5 / 7.4%).
The odds don’t change if you purchase the same loot box twice. You can further illustrate this by allowing each participant to have a go at trying to pull the highlighted piece of paper from the box with their eyes closed. After each draw, they have to put the paper back to represent the same odds.
- Now, divide up the 12 pieces of paper between the participants and equip each of them with a pair of scissors. They now have to halve each piece exactly 5 times. Once completed, add the pieces to the container – there should be 384 pieces in the container now.
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Again, highlight a single piece from the container and place it back inside. The odds of drawing this piece are 1:384 or 0.2%. These are common odds for rare items from a loot box.
Examples include:
- Mario Kart Tour – odds of winning “High End” character from a pipe (Dry Bowser, Metal Mario, Peachette, Pauline (1:384/0.26%)
- League of Legends – odds of winning Ultimate Tier skin from Hextech chest (1:384/0.26%)
- FIFA 22 – likely odds of winning an 87+ player in a Premium gold pack (1:416/0.24%)
- Pokemon Go – odds of hatching a ‘shiny’ pokemon (a specific Pokémon with different coloration to what is usual for its species) (1:500/0.2%)
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Ask if anyone believes they could draw the highlighted piece, and how many times they believe it would take them to draw it. Mathmatically, to have a chance of drawing the highlighted piece it would take 384 draws, and even then it’s not a guarantee but an average calculation.
Participants can have a shot at blindly drawing if they like, but each time they have to place the piece they drew back into the container.
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You can now also calculate how much money they would need to spend on loot boxes so that statistically they have a chance to win – for example:
- League of Legends – 1 Hexchest costs 125RP; 310RP cost £2.25. Total: £349
- Pokemon Go – 1 Incubator costs 150 Pokecoins (or 200 for a Super Incubator); 100 PokeCoins cost £0.79. Total: £455
- FIFA 22 – 1 Premium Gold Pack costs £1; Total: £417
- Mario Kart Tour – 1 pipe draw costs 5 rubies; 3 rubies cost £1.99. Total: £1,274
Alternative options:
Instead of cutting up paper, you can ask participants to draw lines horizontally and vertically, with each rectangle representing a loot box draw.
You could also use marbles, candy or other small items in a container representing odds.
Additional notes:
Odds ratios were taken from official websites of game developers where available, however these are subject to change.